At both The Media Kitchen and Ventures, we’ve been watching the mobile display networks and DSP space evolve. At The Media Kitchen, we’ve been testing and running with about a dozen mobile display companies and at Ventures, we’ve been talking to many of the mobile DSP’s over the past year or so trying to figure out how the market will evolve.
A buddy of mine, Ryan Griffin of Digitas had a great quote in Crains this week talking about how mobile display networks are unfolding very similar to how web desktop display networks did in the late 90s and early 2000s.
“A year and a half ago, we were at the stage of where we were in desktop [Web advertising] in 1998,” said Ryan Griffin, group director of media and mobile at Digitas. “It’s now feeling like 2004.”
I’ve been following that party line as well as things are very, very similar.
If we look to the early desktop display networks to predict the future of the mobile display folks, we know that there will be plenty of mobile players, some early exits and some mobile display companies remaining strong independent companies (potentially even going public themselves). It’s played out this way… Quattro, Admob, Greystripe, and others have already been acquired by strategics and there are plenty of independent mobile companies still in the mix including but not limited to Gradient X, SessionM, Fiksu, mdotm, StrikeAd, inMobi, Adelphic, and dozens of others.
Some open questions I have for the ecosystem:
- Will desktop based DSP’s or networks merge or acquire (or be acquired by) mobile DSPs or networks?
- Will desktop based DSP’s build their own mobile components? Similar to DataXu.
- How are current mobile networks and DSP’s tackling the measurement and attribution issue? The UDID ban has really put a dent into the measurement space so wondering who will tackle this.
#3 above is important. The reason why it’s so important is because if you are a vendor on a media plan and can measure/track your performance, then it’s much easier to substantiate yourself on a plan and have a higher chance of getting extra media budget.
Areas that I’d stay away from in the mobile media ecosystem:
- Rich Media – if we look at desktop display, rich media CPM’s used to be in the $1-3/cpm range but now, we’re down in the $0.20-0.80/cpm range. The CPM’s have fallen dramatically and I expect to see this within mobile.
- Network – if the DSPs succeed and mobile inventory flows to exchanges, then networks have a much smaller role in the evolution of his new media marketplace.
Just some thoughts on the mobile media ecosystem. Would love to hear yours, leave them in the comments.