Technology in 2008

Economist LogoI have been keeping an uber trends list for 2008 and thought I’d highlight the Economist as well, as, a few other forecasts.  In today’s edition of the Economist, they make three fearless predictions:

  1. Surfing will slow
  2. Surfing will detach
  3. Surfing – and everything else computer related – will open

Looks like they spent a lot of time analyzing Internet behavior but certainly displeased Marc Andreesson.  In a nutshell, what they mean by #1 is that because of all of the increased traffic and bandwidth intensive behavior (trading movies, uploading CGC, etc), web surfing is going to be increasingly slower over time.  It’ll get fixed, but we’ve got a long road ahead of us before it gets much faster.

In #2, the Economist predicts that web surfers will utilize the  700mhz frequency that Google is bidding on.  If this happens, then DSL and Cable Internet may go the way of the dinosaur.  Hence the release of Android.

In #3, everything becomes open – or in most cases, free.

I agree with Marc Andreesson in most of his statements including his reaction to #2:

 OK. There is no way that the winner of the upcoming 700-megahertz — Google or anyone else — will be able to have the network itself up and operational in 2008. So this prediction has no relevance for 2008.

In other news, GigaOm released a Tech Trends 2008 show.  Check it out here.

  • Douglas Karr

    I keep hearing the doomsdayers crying wolf over the Internet slowing – it’s ignorant of all the other technologies that are evolving. CSS, Ajax, Akamai/S3 caching, compression, P2P… all of these technologies reduce bandwidth, not increase them. If networks truly start to chug, you can bet your butt that the companies who are streaming tons of multimedia will find ways to relieve the pressure as well. Enough already!

    My prediction is the growth of the micro site. We’ve done the massive sites and are growing weary of them. Instead of Facebook, it will be the year of Ning. Social networks will continue to evolve into incredibly targeted networks – both geographically and by topic. People are going to continue to organize and build networking efficiency. People API’s will continue to evolve with virtual address books for maintaining data securely and in real-time.

    And email and spam will continue to suck. Email is stuck as a textual medium until Microsoft begins supporting multimedia messaging. Spam will continue to be the bane of our existence… well… because dumb people will still click through. Spam wouldn’t exist if it wasn’t working. But the screams of the consumer will get louder!

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  • Comoj Gadgets

    Awesome technology,search for more